We were overwhelmed by the support we received from academics, business leaders, industry bodies, policymakers, scientists and readers of IE, for celebrating the golden jubilee. The deliberations at the conference were well chiseled and rich. We present excerpts of presentation by the 34 speakers:
INAUGURAL SESSION
The Challenges: infrastructure, technology, resource shortage, re skilling
Ramesh Mangaleswaran, Director, McKinsey & Co.
It took 58 years for India to add its first trillion dollars to the economy. The jump from 1 trillion to 2 trillion took eight years. We will move to 3 trillion in 5 years. The march to becoming a 10 trillion dollar economy in 2030 is accelerating.
There are four core challenges: infrastructure, technology, resource shortage and re-skilling.
The world is under-investing in infrastructure to the tune of $ 350 billion a year. About 2.4 billion people are going to join the world’s middle class by 2030. Some 3 million are moving from villages to cities every week.
Technology is a great leveller. For the first time three forces are coming together: (a) low cost of computing, (b) low cost and high-speed availability of communication and (c) lots of data.
Technology will be to the next generation what English was to ours. There are resource shortages. If nothing is done, the demand for water will exceed supply by 50 per cent. Reskilling is a challenge as 15 per cent of today’s workforce is going to be irrelevant by 2030. Degrees are going to get shorter. Imparting skills and training will assume increasing importance.
Yes to technology, no to management resistance
M S Ahluwalia, former Vice Chairman, Planning Commission
Mrs. Indira Gandhi initiated the Green Revolution by overruling three influential opinion-making forces: the Left, the Planning Commission and the Finance Ministry. To push for change, she took a crucial management decision: “yes to technology and no to management resistance.” That is how it should be.
If we want to be a 10-trillion dollar economy, ‘business, as usual’ will not work. In the last 15 years, the average growth rate of the economy was 7.7 per cent. As per this, we will grow at 7.7 per cent for the next 15 years. That is what Kodak, Blackberry thought and we know what happened to them. Challenges of increasing economic growth in a world of technical and institutional changes plus internal revolution of rising expectations are new. The real test is whether we can deliver the results.
For the government to design a good programme, it must talk to the experts. And the experts straddle across both the public and private sectors. But it’s difficult for the private sector to advise the government because it’s difficult to advise people who are going to be regulating you. But the private sector has the skill and the charm and also the ways of getting experts to feed these ideas. This sense of government flexibility to absorb new technology is going to be critical.
China is a sound democracy!
R Thyagarajan, Founder-Chairman, Shriram Group and Director, ECL
We are all comfortable with what is happening in India. We become depressed only when we look at China. The kind of achievement in every field in China in the past 20-25 years is stunning. We should be inspired by what is happening there. We may say that dictatorship is helping China. I feel China is not a dictatorship. It is a sound democracy! Their democracy is confined to a set of people who are committed to the welfare of the nation. Within the Communist Party of China, there is ‘democracy.’ A communist in China is committed to the nation’s prosperity, and, therefore, he has a voice in how the business is run and how the government work is done.
We have to give freedom to our people to criticise.
Kurien’s white revolution, Krishnamurthy’s automobile revolution and Pitroda’s telecom revolution were made by fighting with the government continuously and not hesitating to clash with the bureaucracy.
Why not 8 per cent growth?
Shobana Kamineni, President, Confederation of Indian Industry.
India is the sixth largest manufacturing nation. Reforms such as liberalization of FDI, local content policy in public procurement and implementation of GST have laid a strong foundation for manufacturing. CII identified 28 industries across nine sectors in which India could play a leading role. These include aerospace and defence, auto and auto components, cement, chemicals, engineering, steel, pharmaceuticals, textiles and apparels.
CII has asked the government to ease up general financial rules, make provisions for life cycle cost ownership, government procurement, removal of prior track record clause, domestic purchase preference, expanding employment and setting up multimodal transportation networks. We have to look at each industry and grow it frugally and intelligently.
INDUSTRY & COMMERCE
The five welcome trends
B Santhanam, MD, Saint Gobain Glass India and President (Flat Glass), S. Asia & Egypt
By 2030, 5 trends would emerge: Digitalisation, as everyone is aware, would top the trend. Our economy would be formalised; unorganised sector which is currently 93 per cent in India would be wiped away. Infrastructure development and urbanisation would get further priority. Financialisation would also catch up in India as is already seen in the investment choices of Indian consumers who are already gravitating towards financial products. Finally, our economy would become more inclusive. In particular, participation of women would increase.
TN: focus on select industries
A Vellayan, Former Chairman, Murugappa Group
Tamil Nadu must take 6 or 7 top industries like IT, cement, chemicals and fertilizers, sugar, leather, auto and auto components and make a thorough study of the value chain from raw material to finished products and ensure they are competitive. Ease of doing business and infrastructure development must also be addressed. Over the years competitiveness of industries in the state has declined. Industries are moving to Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka.
Planning Commission must be brought back and sector-specific studies must be carried out. There are a few other issues that the state needs to look at. In the power sector, huge investments made in the windmill sector are idling. In the MSME sector 15.6 lakh entrepreneurs, who provide large employment opportunities, are struggling for survival. Specific actions leading to the resurgence of this sector should be taken. Unless these are addressed, the state will receive investment only for locational, and manpower reasons or to take advantage of the port, which are natural advantages for the state. For everything else, industries will go elsewhere.
