On 3 January, the US launched military operation in Venezuela and captured Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro.
Even in the event of any escalation that disrupts crude oil production in Venezuela, the country’s relatively small share (1.5 per cent) in global supply means it is unlikely to cause sustained turbulence in crude oil prices, shielding India Inc from any material adverse impact, Crisil said.
The price of brent crude oil has remained almost stable over the past few days, hovering a tad above $60 per barrel, it said.
India’s direct trade with Venezuela is also insignificant, accounting for less than 0.25 per cent of its total imports, Crisil said.
Crude oil is the primary import from Venezuela, with India sourcing 1 per cent of its crude oil requirements from the South American country. Crude oil and allied products accounted for over 90% of the Rs 14,000 crore total imports from Venezuela in fiscal 2025, it said.
Overall, India imports almost 85 per cent of its crude oil requirement, which makes it sensitive to global price movements and supply challenges.
“While we do not anticipate any material near-term impact of the Venezuela situation on crude oil prices, investments for increasing crude oil production in Venezuela, which has vast untapped reserves, could boost oil supply globally and lead to softening of crude oil prices over the medium to long term, which could be a positive for India Inc,” Crisil said.
India’s exports to Venezuela were under Rs 2,000 crore in fiscal 2025, making up less than 0.1 per cent of its total exports. The exports are diversified, too, spanning sectors like pharmaceuticals, ceramics, textiles, two-wheelers among others, it said.
Pharmaceutical products led India’s exports to Venezuela, at Rs 900 crore last fiscal, making up less than 0.5 per cent of India’s total pharmaceutical exports.
Exports of ceramics, textiles and two-wheelers were modest, ranging from Rs 80-120 crore each, and formed a negligible part of exports of these sectors, Crisil said.
