Consequently, coal stock cover nearly halved to nine days from 17 days a year earlier, the lowest level since November 2023, it said.
The sharp depletion was concentrated among plants dependent on domestic coal, highlighting the challenges of timely inventory replenishment amid elevated power demand and coal consumption, the report said.
Between April and August, coal consumption by thermal plants rose 8 per cent on-year to 395 MT, driven by a 9.5 per cent increase in power demand following an abnormally hot summer and a below-normal southwest monsoon. Cumulative rainfall between June and August was 13 per cent below the long-period average, it added.
Overall power generation rose 10.5 per cent on-year during these five months. Renewable energy generation surged 20.7 per cent on year, but its intermittent nature meant coal-fired power continued to play a critical role in meeting round-the-clock demand, according to the report.
51 of the country’s 190 thermal plants were operating with critically low coal stocks in August, compared with 20 a year earlier. Most of these plants rely on domestic coal, underscoring the importance of timely inventory replenishment, Crisil said.
A significant share of coal-based generation capacity in Rajasthan (72 per cent), Madhya Pradesh (69 per cent) and Andhra Pradesh (60 per cent) was operating with critically low coal stocks. The Central Electricity Authority deems coal stocks at power plants critical when they fall 25 per cent below the normative level.
Bihar (45 per cent) and Jharkhand (48 per cent) also faced considerable stress, while 20-31 per cent of coal-based capacity in other major states was similarly affected. In contrast, Odisha (10 per cent) and West Bengal (6 per cent) remained relatively better placed, as per the report.
The key challenge has been the mismatch between rising demand and transportation capacity. Prolonged rains across the eastern coal belt disrupted mining operations and hampered coal evacuation, Crisil said.
During April-August, rake loading increased only around 5 per cent and coal receipts 3 per cent, even as coal consumption surged. Consequently, incremental evacuation was insufficient to replenish inventories at power plants. To ease the situation, Coal India permitted power plants with fuel supply agreements to lift additional coal by road, alongside rail transport, from 7 September 2026, it noted.
“In the second half of this fiscal, electricity demand, coal-based generation, coal consumption and coal dispatches to power plants are all expected to grow in a narrow range of 6-7 per cent on-year. Power demand is estimated at 860-870 billion units, while coal-based generation is likely to retain its dominant 65-70 per cent share of India’s electricity mix. Given adequate inventories at miners and improving evacuation logistics, higher dispatch requirements should be met comfortably. As such, the recent decline in power plant stocks appears to be a temporary logistical issue rather than a sign of any structural supply constraint,” Surbhi Kaushal, Associate Director, Crisil Intelligence, said.
