Domestic CV wholesale volumes saw a minuscule 0.1% increase in May 2025 on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, while sequentially, they grew by around 1.6 per cent. In the first two months of this fiscal, CV wholesale volumes declined by 0.7% on a YoY basis.
CV retail volumes declined by 3.7 per cent YoY in May 2025, while the sequential decline was 11.3 per cent. These trends reflect elevated inventory levels at the dealership end.
In the medium and heavy commercial vehicle (M&HCV) segment, retail sales volumes in May 2025 witnessed a moderate decline of 4.4 per cent YoY, along with a sizeable sequential drop of 18.9 per cent. Regional disruptions and the geopolitical situation had some bearing on demand during the month. M&HCV (trucks) wholesale volumes are expected to register low single digit YoY growth in FY2026, following a 4 per cent decline in FY2025.
Retail volumes in the light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment in May 2025 declined by 3.2 per cent YoY and by 4.9 per cent sequentially, reflecting muted demand in the segment. LCV (trucks) wholesale volumes are likely to register a limited 3–5 per cent YoY growth in FY2026. An increasing preference for pre-owned vehicles over new ones in this segment has also impacted demand in the recent past.
ICRA expects the domestic CV industry to register a modest YoY growth of 3–5 per cent in wholesale volumes in FY2026, after witnessing a marginal 1.2 per cent YoY decline in FY2025.
While the M&HCV (trucks) and LCV (trucks) segments are expected to witness modest YoY volume growth of 0–3 per cent and 3–5 per cent, respectively, the buses segment is likely to see relatively higher growth of 8–10 per cent YoY in this fiscal.
A pickup in construction and mining activities, coupled with a steady economic environment, will support demand prospects for the LCV (trucks) and M&HCV (trucks) segments, while replacement demand is likely to drive volume growth in the buses segment, ICRA stated.
