MARGIN OF ERROR

Many years ago, my economics professor at college was teaching us about consumer surplus. He said, “Suppose you step into a shop and see a shirt. You instantly decide you are ready to pay Rs X. Then you look at the price tag, and it turns out to be a lower Rs Y. How would you feel? Naturally, you are pleasantly surprised. You enjoy a consumer surplus that’s valued at X – Y.”

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I LIKED ECONOMICS and generally loved my professors sense of humour and logic. Years later, when I got into work, into journal­ism, and into consulting, the idea of consumer surplus helped me understand something far more fundamental. It explained why some ex­periences leave us happy, while others leave us mildly annoyed.

WHICH BRINGS US TO WHAT I CALL THE EDITOR PROBLEM.

Suppose I told an editor that I will submit an article on the 23rd, and I sending it on the 21st . Naturally, the editor is delighted. He decides that I am efficient, dependable and easy to work with. In my professor’s language he has enjoyed a consumer surplus of 2 days. My colleague promises to deliver his article on the 18th but submits it on the 20th. He writes well, finishes earlier than me, but behind his agreed schedule. The editor is annoyed. He decides that my colleague is inefficient, un­dependable and hard to work with. This time the editor is having a consumer deficit. Bottom line: I created relief for him while my colleague cre­ated irritation.

What changed was not the work perse, it was the expectation. Air­lines understand this psychology: a flight scheduled for 10:30 landing at 10:05 feels like a win. Food apps do the same – promise 40 minutes, deliver in 30, earn five stars. Prom­ise 20, arrive in 25, and disappointment sets in.

In economics, this gap measures value. In life, it measures satisfaction. The problem is that we are slowly eliminating this gap. Technology has made everything faster and that has become the default expectation. Messages and e-mails demand instant re­plies. Deadlines shrink because nobody wants to appear slow. Promises become am­bitious because speed looks impressive. We now live in an age of what I call ‘expectation inflation’. And, as we know, inflation erodes value. Doing exactly what you promised, exactly when you promised it, no longer delights anyone. It merely avoids complaint. Satisfaction now comes from small positives such as results that arrive slightly earlier than expected.

The reverse is also true. Chronic over-prom­ising destroys goodwill faster than poor performance. Once raised, expectations are difficult to lower. Perhaps this is why the calmest people at work appear successful. They don’t impress in advance. They allow results to exceed promises by small margins. They un­derstand that satisfaction often lies not in what is delivered, but in how it compares to expecta­tions.

To economists, this is consumer surplus. We mortals, experience it as the small space be­tween expectation and reality. So if we promised to deliver this magazine to you on the 10th, we will de­liver it on the 8th.

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