The price of Brent crude averaged at USD 120.55 per barrel of oil (bbl) in April 2026, when compared to USD 103.89 in March 2026 and USD 67.79 in April 2025. The Indian basket crude price averaged at USD 114.48/bbl during April 2026, as against USD 113.49/bbl during March 2026 and USD 67.72/bbl during April 2025.
The April 2026 trade data released by the Union Ministry of Commerce and Industry also confirmed the decline in crude oil imports, reflecting the supply disruptions. The overall import bill rose 10 per cent year-on-year to USD 71.9 billion in April 2026, driven by price pressures and a surge in imports of gems and jewellery, mainly gold, which surged 81.7 per cent. Gold is the third largest import commodity after crude oil and electronic goods. The government recently nearly doubled the import duty on gold.
Apart from petroleum products, other major export drivers included electronic goods, engineering goods, meat, dairy and poultry products and drugs & pharmaceuticals. Amid lower tariffs (now at 10 per cent), exports to the USA improved to USD 8.5 billion in April 2026 from USD 8 billion in March. Sectors such as leather and leather products and textiles recorded muted export growth. According to Crisil, the oil trade deficit stood at USD 9 billion in April 2026 and the agency expects it to rise even further in this fiscal amid raising prices. It expects Brent crude to average USD 90-95 per barrel in fiscal 2027 from USD 70.3 per barrel last fiscal.
Amid the current scenario and likely pressure on remittances from West Asia, Crisil has forecast the current account deficit (CAD) to rise to 2.2 per cent in FY27 from an estimated 0.8 per cent last fiscal. India Ratings expects the trade deficit to widen to USD 421.2 billion in FY27, which is 10.4 per cent of GDP and the highest since FY13. According to the agency, rupee is likely to depreciate 6.7 per cent in FY27 and goods trade deficit is likely to increase more than the services trade surplus. The external front seems to add to the inflationary woes.
On the positive side, India’s trade pacts with Oman, the UK, New Zealand and the European Union could help explore newer markets and boost exports. However, a sense of uncertainty looms over the trade pact with the USA, which remains a key monitorable. The mounting pressures could also impact the fiscal math.
