LAST TIME TRUMP was in power, he appeared to be rubbing shoulders with Putin and Modi genially, and he was all the good trade-wise. Something in him changed this time, and he is going overboard in each and every decision that would macroeconomically affect the US, despite his America First campaign.There is growing discontent within the US government, US military and among the US people about the way Trump is administering the government. His authority is questioned over explicit sacking of senior pentagon staff and military commanders who dissented his decisions. It looks like Trump is pushing the US to the brink of dividing the country and pushing towards an international trade isolation as nations begin to align on their own terms amid the de-dollarisation talks that have begun to resurface.
TIME FOR ASIA’S SUPREMACY
It is warm to see Russia and China are standing together with India when US tariffs are about to rip India’s exports. Asia’s economy is booming as never before and accounts for 40 per cent of the world GDP. In another 10 years, as economic pundits predict, Asia will be the epicenter that would run the world’s colossal trade mechanism. India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand are now surging ahead having shaped as major players not only in the regional economy, but also as vital links in the global value chains after the Asian Tiger economies Japan, South Korea, Singapore and China. International Monetary Fund forecasts for the Asian green economy would transform the world in the coming decade.
CHANGING TRADE DYNAMICS
As India and China have emerged as the top new players in the region, their growth in the next ten years is going to dominate the world’s trade calculations. Indian economy, expected to grow by 6.8 per cent this year, has already outrun Japan in 2025 even as per nominal GDP, and by 2030, would emerge as the third largest economy with USD 7 trillion GDP outpacing Germany. India’s external trade is expected to increase to USD 303 billion in the next decade because of the deft geopolitical shifts.
Meantime, IMF has revised its guidance for the China’s GDP growth by 0.8 to 4.8 per cent in 2025. Even if its growth stumbles to 3 per cent, China, as the world’s second largest economy, would grow by USD 5 trillion by 2030 as its current GDP stands at USD 19.53 trillion in 2025. And the ASEAN trade is set to grow by nearly USD 1.2 trillion in the region.
THE OIL POLITICS
The major case in point for the tariffs on India is the cheap import of the Russian crude, which, in turn is refined and sold elsewhere.
America sees that the proceeds from this are funding the Ukraine war from the Russian side. India, technically, is not the largest importer of the Russian crude, China is with 52 per cent. India only buys 33 per cent. But Trump government accuses that India’s import has surged to 40 per cent, after the Ukraine war started, from meagre one per cent. But the oxymoron is that most of the EU countries, who imposed sanctions or supported them, including Germany, are buying Russian gas, without which European households can hardly survive.
Adding further to this, India’s external affairs ministry refusaed to accept some of the conditions on the Bilateral Trade negotiations (BTA) have irked Trump, resulting in the 100 per cent tariff on pharma goods. The BTA, even after five rounds of marathon talks since March 2025, is yet to conclude on mutually agreeable terms, chiefly because of the hard nature of Trump’s impositions from the draconian America First policies. Now the main focus is how India succeeds in the BTA talk as US is a major trade partner. India’s USD 131. 8 billion trade with the US in 2024-25 fiscal (China comes second with USD 122 billion for the same period) cannot be compromised at least until the time the current FTAs formally come into force and new ones, on the anvil, are forged. And the ‘Make in India’ is more relevant now and the country should move from product-assisted economy to product-driven one.
Whether this tariff turmoil, will satisfy an undying ego of Trump or not is unclear. But the world is ushering a new trade order that might fritter away the US hegemony once for all, if not in the short term, in the years to come.