Electric Vehicles (EVs)
By 2030, most new vehicles in India will be electric
India needs Electric Vehicles (EVs) more than most other countries. We have fourteen of the twenty most polluted cities in the world. Our oil import bill severely impacts our economy. Electric Vehicles, with four-times higher energy efficiency as compared to the petrol vehicles, would be the obvious way to go.
Problem and Prospects: The problem is that the energy storage tank (a battery) for EVs is eight to ten times heavier and larger than the weight and size of the petrol fuel-tank. This is so even after considering the four times higher energy-efficiency of EVs. And it reflects on the higher cost of batteries for EVs. Fortunately, the weight, size and the costs of the lithium-ion (Li-Ion) batteries have been falling rapidly, having fallen about ten times in the last decade. This trend is likely to continue for some time as gravimetric energy density in terms of watt-hour per kilogram (Wh/kg) for Li-Ion cells continue to rise. Thus, electric two-wheelers and three-wheelers with smaller batteries already compete in price with their petrol-counterparts in India; besides, electric two-wheelers and three-wheelers have much lower fuel costs per km as compared to that for the petrol-vehicles. The only limitation is that the smaller the batteries used, lower is the range that the vehicles provide. Electric cars, buses and trucks with larger batteries are certainly more expensive today but would be able to compete with petrol vehicles in years to come as battery prices fall further.
Batteries used today are of the Lithium-Ion family. Their energy density has exceeded 300 Wh/kg. It will continue to increase as battery-chemistry evolves with increasing nickel content in their cathode and increasing silicon content in their graphite-based anode. These chemistries are likely to provide the most cost-effective EV batteries for at least five to seven years. There is a possibility of new breakthrough with some version of solid-state lithium batteries or lithium metal batteries as time goes by, but simultaneously matching the current batteries in terms of size, weight, cost, life cycles, wide temperature operation range and safety may delay these new innovations.
Costs Fall…
Innovations in Li-Ion batteries would continue to drive down the costs of batteries, finally making the EVs of all sizes comparable in costs to petrol vehicles. But the weight and size of the batteries for a given range will continue to be much higher than that for a petrol tank. This is because these batteries would still be far-away in energy density compared to that of petrol, diesel or CNG. This problem will be solved only when hydrogen fuel becomes a reality. The vehicles will remain electric, but hydrogen would be converted to electricity to drive the vehicle. This is not a technical challenge: hydrogen-based electric cars are a reality today. But they are far from competing with battery based EVs. One may have to wait for quite some time.
EV demand for 2- & 3-wheelers and small cars…
India is the home of a large auto-sector, with close to 300 million vehicles on-road and about 30 million vehicles sold every year. Almost 80 per cent of the vehicles are two-wheelers and about 3 to 4 per cent are three-whee
lers. While scooters and motor bikes are the primary personal vehicle for large sections of middle-class and lower-middle class people in rural and urban area three-wheeled autos and e-rickshaws have become the primary public transport in cities, small towns and larger villages. Cars constitute only 14 per cent of total vehicles in India. If one further examines this, one will find that 85 per cent of these cars cost less than ₹1 million. India is a land where affordability plays a major role in auto-sector. In terms of numbers, buses and the trucks constitute a small part of total auto-population in India, even though in absolute numbers, they are considerable.
On the other hand, if one looks at the auto-markets in Europe, United States, China and Japan, where electric vehicles are making considerable inroads, one finds they are mostly interested in cars (costing above ₹2.5 million) and in buses and trucks. Their requirement often involves higher speeds and longer range. For example, Tesla prides itself on giving a 600 km range and costs above ₹4 million. While there would be some demand for vehicles like these in India, they would not make a dent in electrification of the Indian auto-sector in terms of numbers. The numbers will come with two-wheelers, three-wheelers and small and affordable cars.
Unfortunately, Indian policy makers often fail to recognise this simple fact.
India Strategy…
India electrification strategy, therefore, has to focus on two-wheelers, three-wheelers and small and affordable cars. The issues that need to be handled are (i) vehicle cost (ii) range and (iii) charging infrastructure. Let us look at these.
The battery dominates the cost of the vehicle – contributing to almost 40 per cent of the total cost. The question is, what is the size of the battery that one needs? That would depend on the range that one wishes the vehicle to have and the energy per km (Wh/km) that the vehicle consumes. Now, what is the energy that the vehicle needs to consume per km? This question posed for an electric auto casually to a gathering of three-wheeler manufacturers about four years back, gave blank faces. They were not aware of the answer. This was a surprise, since the same question “what is the mileage” for petrol vehicles would have got immediate response as leadership in auto-sector in India tracks this very carefully and even use this for advertising. Customers ask the same question before they buy.
Welcome focus on energy per km…
The answer for the “energy needed per km” for electric auto did eventually come and it was 75 to 80 Wh/km. The follow-up question “why is it so high?” gave equally blank looks. It was quite well understood that one needs to use (i) higher efficiency motors and controllers, (ii) better tyres to reduce rolling resistance, (iii) better vehicle aero-dynamics and (iv) lower weight of the vehicle to improve this number. It appeared that the industry had not worked on these for EVs. A target was set to be in between 45 and 50 Wh/km for India three-wheeler auto. In about three years, most vehicle manufacturers are offering between 45 and 55 Wh/km.
Now this is momentous, as reducing the energy consumed per km reduces the size of the battery to drive a given range. This reduced by about 40 per cent and thereby the cost of the battery came down by 40 per cent in India over the last four years. This was specifically important in India as affordability is of higher concern here. This process of improving the energy efficiency of a vehicle was extended to two-wheelers, four-wheelers and buses. Industry and academia came together in carrying out this task. This makes EVs more affordable.
Battery Swapping: An Indian innovation
To drive down the costs of small EV further, India came up with another innovation. Because EV battery charging takes an hour to several hours, smaller batteries lead to range-anxiety, where the user is anxious about the charge remaining on the battery. This compels most vehicles to opt for large batteries. For example, Tesla cars have batteries to drive 600 km on a single charge. In India, vehicles are driven shorter distances in a day. Yet, too small a battery may lead to range anxiety. What if the discharged batteries, instead of being charged, are swapped with charged batteries? All that a user needs to do is to go to a swapping station, where charged batteries are kept ready. Swapping may take three to five minutes (similar to what filling of petrol takes in a petrol vehicle). Smaller batteries would then not result in such a range-anxiety. The smaller batteries would significantly reduce the cost of an EV.
It may now be possible that EVs are purchased without a battery. This would drive their cost below that of petrol vehicles. The charged battery could then be leased by the vehicle owner from an Energy Operator (EO), who will purchase batteries and set up multiple charging-cum-swapping stations in a locality, much like a chain of petrol pumps. The EV owner could then take the charged battery from any of the stations; and when the battery is running out of charge, go an outlet to swap the discharged battery with a charged one. S/he would pay only battery usage charges. The usage charge would be determined to cover the investment in the batteries and the charger, cost of electricity, operation charges and profit-margin for the EO. Even then battery usage charges would turn out to be lower than the cost of petrol per km for a petrol vehicle. It is a win-win for both the EO as well as EV owner. The EV owner now does not even have to worry about the quality of the battery and the falling of battery capacity over time. It is up to the EO to replace the battery when the capacity of the older ones falls below a certain level. The issue of public charging infrastructure is no longer a concern, as the EO would set up the number of charging cum swapping stations so that its customers are happy.
There was a resistance to this idea of battery swapping, as it had not been done in any other country. The fact that LPG gas cylinders were introduced and made to work in India instead of laying and maintaining gas pipes to every home did not cut ice. The resulting gain for India has been huge with even rural homes now getting gas cylinders. The battery swapping innovation was thus stalled by policy makers for over three years. Finally, in August 2020, the government permitted selling of vehicles without battery, so that battery swapping can be carried out.
Charging options…
While public vehicles like autos, e-rickshaws and buses may use battery swapping to make electric vehicles affordable, private vehicles like two-wheelers and cars may have a built-in small fixed battery, which would be enough for daily usage on most days. Here the battery-charging may be carried out overnight at homes. When the vehicles need to drive longer, they may add a range-extension battery, which can be swapped-in for the day and returned at the end of the day. For long-distance inter-city travel, this range-extension battery may be swapped multiple times to get whatever range one requires.
There are vehicles which would require larger batteries and may not opt for battery-swapping. They would need public charging station in addition to home charging. The approach will then be similar to that used in other countries. Even the fast chargers would need 30 to 45 minutes charging most of the time. Petrol pumps are not the best place for installing such chargers for the petrol pump is designed to service a vehicle in about 5 minutes and keep them moving. The best place for installing such charging stations would be parking lots in shopping centers, cinema halls and offices. Vehicles can be parked here for a longer time and slow or fast charging may be chosen by a customer. It is important to point out that repeated fast charging has an adverse impact on battery life and more expensive battery chemistries may have to be chosen to allow fast charging.
Make India the urban mining capital for battery materials!
A concern is sometimes expressed whether the introduction of EVs at scale in India will increase the import bill. That will depend upon whether the EV sub-systems will be designed and manufactured in India or will be imported like it is done today. Today EV motors and controllers are being designed in India and there is no reason why most such subsystems could not be manufactured entirely in India. The slogan has to be “comparable to price of imported motors and controllers, but superior in quality. “Similarly, EV packs are already being designed and manufactured in India. Battery cells are, however, imported today. A policy to incentivise manufacturing such cells in India is in the offing and they would be manufactured here in a few years. The question will be of materials like lithium, manganese, nickel, cobalt and graphite, which are not available in India. There are, however, start-ups in India which are recovering 90 per cent of these materials from a used battery using environmentally friendly processes. They would soon scale, making India the urban mining capital for battery materials.
Over the last four years, India has made a slow but definite beginning in matters of policy, R&D and manufacturing to ensure that India adopts Electric Vehicles rapidly. The results will unfold in coming years. By 2030, most new vehicles in India will be electric.
