Despite winning the largest numbers in the 2019 state elections, BJP could not assume power in Maharashtra. BJP, which had nearly twice the number of votes as Shiv Sena’s would not agree sharing the chiefministership. Traditional rivals, National Congress Party and the Congress along with Shiv Sena managed to form the unlikely coalition government making Uddhav Thackeray of Shiv Sena the Chief Minister. Under Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), the leaders succeeded in keeping the BJP out of power. This bond kept the MVA in power for three years despite vast differences and charges of corruption.
This coalition reminded a similar coming together of the Congress and the JDU led by H D Kumaraswamy in Karnataka that successfully kept the BJP out of power in the state for over a year.
Understandably, such arrangements could not last their full term. The technology for exploiting dissensions had been perfected over the years. The BJP did succeed in bringing the downfall of the JDU-Congress government in Karnataka and likewise the MVA in Maharashtra.
To ensure the sustainability of the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, a chastened BJP leadership left the chiefministership to the breakaway leader of Shiv Sena, Eknath Shinde. Though he brought with him just 39 members against BJP’s 106, Devendra Fadnavis, who was earlier the Chief Minister of Maharashtra for a full term, reconciled to be the Deputy Chief Minister under the advice of the BJP leadership.
This would help BJP consolidate its position in Maharashtra which had been a stronghold of Shiv Sena for several years. The prospects for this new combine winning the state elections in 2024 as also the prosperous municipal corporations of Maharashtra appears bright.
With this conquest, the Congress’ hold to power is limited to Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. One can expect the BJP to wean the disgruntled Deputy CM of Rajasthan, Sachin Pilot, away from Congress, as it did in Madhya Pradesh by attracting Jyotiraditya Scindia to its fold.
With the consolidation of the party’s hold in the north and the west, the BJP can be expected to turn its attention to the south. Now, after Karnataka, Telangana seems to be its target. It will still be a tough task to make inroads in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The breakup of the AIADMK seems to continue with the rivalry between E K Palaniswami and O Panneerselvam intensifying. The faction-ridden Congress continues to be in disarray with little prospects of surviving on its own. Other parties – the PMK, VCK and the Communists – do not command much following. K Annamalai, TN’s BJP President, is working hard building BJP in the state from the grassroots.
With his focus on development and administration, DMK’s M K Stalin seems well-entrenched.
