IMF has projected an inflation rate of 2.8 per cent in FY26 and 4.0 per cent in FY27. The RBI’s forecast for headline Inflation for Q1 and Q2 of FY27 currently stands at 3.9 and 4 per cent, it said.
In December 2025, the RBI revised its inflation projections for FY26 from 2.6 per cent to 2.0 per cent, owing to a good kharif harvest and healthy rabi sowing, the survey noted.
According to the World Bank’s Commodity Prices Outlook, October 2025, global commodity prices are expected to decline by approximately 7 per cent in FY27, primarily driven by subdued crude oil prices amid oversupply, it said.
Geopolitics may come in the way of this prediction, however. On the other hand, the prices of base metals, such as iron, copper, and aluminium, are expected to increase moderately, the survey said.
The prices of precious metals, both gold and silver, are likely to continue increasing due to their sustained demand as safe-haven investments amid global uncertainties, unless a durable peace is established and trade wars are resolved, it said.
Some commentators feel that the torrid pace set by gold and silver in 2025 may not be sustained. If they are correct, core inflation excluding precious metals may be higher, not lower, the survey noted.
