Since the onset of Middle East conflict, the Indian crude basket’s price has jumped to USD117.09/bbl in March 2026 (up to 25 March 2026) from USD69.01/bbl in February 2026, Dr. Devendra Pant, Chief Economist, India Ratings and Research, said.
However, the retail prices of petrol (excluding premium variety) and diesel (excluding industrial diesel) have remained constant. The spread between global petroleum product prices and crude prices for petrol and diesel widened to USD7.4/barrel (bbl) and USD52.0/bbl, respectively, in March 2026 from USD6.3/bbl and USD17.0/bbl in February 2026, he added.
Due to the constant retail prices, oil marketing companies incurred huge marketing losses, making the excise duty cut beneficial for their credit profile. Even after the excise duty cut, the retail prices of petrol and diesel are expected to remain same as on 26 March 2026, complicating fiscal arithmetic for FY27, Pant added.
