Trump 2.0 & H-1B Visa Dilemma: A Political Tightrope

Donald Trump returned to office on the campaign of Making America Great Again (MAGA). He wanted to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. and  retain its leadership in various areas, including AI and military technologies. The Big Tech is supporting Trump. A recent pledge by a group of tech-titans to invest 500 billion in AI infrastructure bears testimony to this. One of the issues here is highly skilled manpower. The big tech, led by Elon musk, is fighting for legal immigration of highly skilled manpower in technology areas.

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In one of the campaign speeches, Trump had indicated that the international students who come to do their master’s and PhD in science and technology should be given green cards so that they can stay back and contribute to the American economy. He, however, went silent on it after push back from conservative elements in the Republican Party.

Nevertheless, the entry of Elon Musk in the campaign in support of Trump Was a turning point in the fight for legal immigration of skilled tech workers.

On one hand, Trump has been very critical of Illegal immigration and has started taking action as soon as he assumed office. There was lot of mixed feeling with H1B visa holders and international students. In fact, some organisations had even urged their H1B visa holders to return to the U.S. before Trump took office. That level of panic was due to uncertainties prevailing at that time. Post that, Trump has made a number of speeches supporting legal immigration of tech workers, under H1B .

His recent programme of gold cards is seen as a compromise with hard liners to bring in tech workers. We are not sure how successful that programme will be.

Change of heart

Trump was very critical of H1B in his first term and initiated a number of steps to make it difficult for international students to get H1B. His change of heart in his second term has to do with advisors like Elon Musk as well as the realisation that countries like China are making rapid progress in cutting-edge technologies and restrictions on technology alone will not help. The U.S. has to be a leader in innovation. Access to top talent is critical for it.

The fact remains that the U.S. needs skilled talent in many areas if it has to retain its lead in cutting-edge technologies and that is possible only with legal immigration like H1B visa , Gold card etc.

Difficulties galore

Is it good for most countries from where international students are coming? In the past, people migrated because of lack of opportunities in their countries. The same cannot be said of the situation today. China, India and few other nations offer challenging work options as well as an encouraging ecosystem for start-ups.

In the ’80s and ’90s, almost 70 to 80% of graduates passing out of IITs in India migrated to the U.S. for higher studies and better careers. A very small percentage came back to India. We understand that the number has dropped to 40% in recent days.

This indicated that the pull of U.S. education is dropping over time. It is going to be an interesting competition for talent and H1B is only one aspect of it. We can expect many more nuanced programmes as long as big tech companies influence continues. Trump’s second term is shaping up to be a balancing act between his hardline stance on immigration and the pressing needs of America’s tech industry.

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