The FY2025-2026 GDP projection is slightly higher than the Second Advance Estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), which placed India’s real GDP growth at 7.6 per cent in 2025-26.
Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices is estimated to attain a level of Rs 346.36 lakh crore in the year 2025-26, against Rs 318.07 lakh crore in 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 8.9 per cent.
Real Gross Value Added (GVA) is estimated at Rs 294.91 lakh crore in the year 2025-26, against Rs 273.36 lakh crore in FY 2024-25, registering a growth rate of 7.9 per cent as compared to 7.3 per cent growth rate in 2024-25. Nominal GVA is estimated to attain a level of Rs 314.87 lakh crore during FY 2025-26, against Rs 288.54 lakh crore in 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 9.1 per cent.
Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in Q4 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at Rs 94.65 lakh crore, against Rs 86.75 lakh crore in Q4 of FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 9.1 per cent.
Real GVA in Q4 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at Rs 80.18 lakh crore, against Rs 74.32 lakh crore in Q4 of FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 7.9 per cent.
Nominal GVA in Q4 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at Rs 86.46 lakh crore, against Rs78.68 lakh crore in Q4 of FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 9.9 per cent.
The upward revision reflects a higher-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter, which printed at 7.8 per cent—down from 8.0 per cent in the third quarter but above the average growth of 7.4 per cent in the previous 10 quarters—driven by healthy private consumption and fixed investments, Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, Crisil Ltd, said.
Notably, the growth was despite headwinds from the West Asia conflict that began towards the end of February and intensified in March, he noted.
In fiscal 2027, however, growth is set to weaken amid multiple headwinds, including higher prices of crude and other commodities, softer global growth and forecast of a below-normal monsoon, Joshi said.
Global supply chain disruptions are already intensifying cost pressures and reduced input availability is expected to add to the pressure, he added.
We maintain our GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2027 at 6.6 per cent, with risks tilted to the downside. Despite the slowdown in real GDP, the nominal GDP growth is set to be higher due to higher inflation based on both Wholesale Price Index and the Consumer Price Index, Joshi added.
For more details: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleaseDetail.aspx?PRID=2269286®=3&lang=1
