In the winter of 2014, when J&K threw up a hung assembly, the BJP joined hands with the PDP to form the government out of national interest. A little under four years later, the BJP got into splitsville, again due to the national interest.
With the general elections due in May 2019, and anti-incumbency running high, has the BJP played a masterstroke by pulling out an alliance with the PDP? In December 2014, two parties, together, emerged the largest in J&K – the PDP with 28 seats and the BJP with 25 seats. With the halfway mark set at 44, the two entered into a marriage of convenience. Everyone, including the RSS, raised questions on this alliance. After a lot of seduction and months of hibernation, the two parties agreed on a common minimum programme and the assembly, which was kept in suspended animation, began to function under the lead of Mufti Mohammed Sayeed.
Less than two years later, the Mufti passed away and after an unprecedented three months of Governor’s rule, the mantle fell on his daughter, Mehbooba. While Mufti played dove and had a soft stance on the Hurriyat even advocating dialogue with them, the BJP warned Mehbooba of the Hurriyat being agents of Pakistan. In July 2016, the death of Burhan Wani, dubbed commander of the Kashmiri militant group Hizbul Mujahideen, erupted widespread protests in the valley, causing months of unrest in which more than 96 people died while over 15,000 civilians and 4000 security personnel were injured. While BJP was calling him terrorist, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti had different views and in one of her speeches said she should have saved him.
There were several occasions when the two parties crossed swords. Like, the BJP always wanted to trash Article 370, which lends special status of autonomy to J&K. Dissensions were there in the Kathau rape case, the Major Gogoi case of using a stone pelter as a human shield, GST implementation, army ceasefire, etc. Importantly, the two parties were losing grip on their
traditional vote bank. While PDP was losing grip in the valley, BJP was crashing in Jammu and Ladakh region.
Ceasefire and its impact:
It was on PDP’s request the BJP has called out ceasefire during the holy month of Ramzan. It was expected that everyone will cooperate in ensuring the success of this initiative. While the Security Forces displayed commendable restraint during this period, the terrorists continued with their attacks, on civilians and Security Forces, which resulted in deaths and injuries. During the final days of the ceasefire, the killing of Rising Kashmir’s Journalist Shujaat Bukhari and soldier Aurangzeb further vitiated the atmosphere. There were reports of a terrorist attack being planned during this year’s scheduled Amarnath yatra.
Way forward
With the Central government agreeing not to continue with a ceasefire and pulling out its support to the PDP government which led to PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti’s resignation as the chief minister, J&K will have to undergo yet another governor’s rule. It will be the 8th time in four decades, the Governor’s rule has been imposed in J&K. While regional parties might be interested in conducting the assembly polls as soon as possible, the Central government will be more interested in postponing the elections and control law and order through governor’s rule. In the run up to 2019 General elections, the Central government will be more interested in intensifying army operations in J&K, going hard on terrorists and anti-social elements, investigating and resolving cases of killing of Journalist Bukhari and soldier Aurangzeb and restoring peace in J&K. We should not be surprised if the Central government undertakes another surgical strike in Pakistan to send a message across the nation of a strong government.
While the BJP-PDP unholy alliance has come to an end, it would take years for Kashmir, known for its beauty, to become a peaceful state.
